Searching for the Big Die-Off: An Event Study of 19th Century Cattle Markets

Winner of the James Soltow Award for Best Paper in Essays 2013

Abstract

The nineteenth century range cattle industry continues to capture the imagination of many. Researchers maintain that the industry experienced a rapid rise and then a spectacular collapse, as overstocking resulted in the big “die-off” in 1886-87. However, the story rests largely on anecdotal evidence rather than statistical testing. We subject the claim of a big die-off to modern statistical testing. We fail to find evidence supporting the claim, but find a substantial disruption beginning in 1892, several years after the supposed event. Financial disruptions during the 1890s appear to have had a greater impact in ending the industry.